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Marbella & Benahavis: The Evolution of the 1 Million Euros Plus Property Market

Marbella and Benahavis have long been hotspots for luxu­ry real estate on Spain's Costa del Sol. Recent data on property sales and prices in the Golden Triangle areas re­veal interesting trends that reflect growing demand, price resilience, and the evolving preferences of high-end buy­ers. What the latest figures tell us about the current state and future outlook for these markets is outlined below:

1. Strong Growth in High-Value Sales. The flrst chart tracks the number of property transactions in different price segments across recent years in Benahavis. Sales in the €1.5 million to €4 million range (gray bars) and proper­ties over €4 million (yellow bars) have shown significant growth from 2020 onwards, peaking in 2022. This spike reflects a post-pandemic demand surge, as affiuent buy­ers looked for spacious, high-quality homes in scenic are­as with access to nature and privacy qualities that Bena­havis is known for. lnterestingly, while sales in the €1 million to €1.5 million range (red bars) remained steady, the demand for ultra­luxury homes priced over €4 million saw a notable in­crease. This trend underscores a shift in buyer de­mographics and preferences, with more high-net-worth individuals willing to invest in exclusive properties offering high privacy, premium amenities, and unique locations.

2. 2. Market Share Shifts Toward Higher Price Ranges. Looking at the lines representing the percentage of total transactions in each price range, we can see that the share of sales in the €1.5 million to €4 million and over €4 million segments has grown over time. The percentage of transactions in the €1 million to €1.5 million range has gradually decreased as higher-value properties gain a larg­er portian of the market.

By 2023, properties in the €1.5 million to €4 million range accounted for around 12% of the total sales volume, while those over €4 million made up approximately 6% to 8%.

These trends indicate that the Benahavis market is matur­ing towards a more exclusive tier, with demand increasing­ly concentrated in the luxury and ultra-luxury segments.


3. Consistent Price Appreciation in Both Markets. The second set of charts (next page) illustrates the price evolu­tion per square meter for properties in different price cate­gories in both Marbella and Benahavís from 2014 to 2024. Properties over €4 million in Benahavís (yellow line) show a price peak in 2022, reaching approximately €7,000 per square meter. Prices in the €1.5 to €4 million range (gray line) have also climbed steadily, with recent values around€5,500 per square meter.

In Marbella, the pricing trajectory shows a similar pattern, with prices per square meter in the top-tier segment now approaching €7,500. The data reveal Marbella's position as a highly desirable luxury destination, with prices for properties over €4 million consistently staying above other price ranges. Both markets have shown resilience and steady appreciation, demonstrating their appeal and sta­bility, even in uncertain economic climates.


 

4. Key Takeaways for Buyers and lnvestors. These in­sights suggest that both Marbella and Benahavís are be­coming increasingly attractive to luxury buyers, with prop­erty prices in top segments continuing to rise. Far buyers, this indicates an opportunity far long-term value apprecia­tion in the ultra-luxury sector, particularly as demand out­paces supply in these exclusive markets.

lnvestors can also interpret this data as a sign of strong market fundamentals. The consistent price growth per square meter across all categories indicates a stable in­vestment climate, with properties in the higher price ranges offering potential far salid returns.

As summary and looking at the charts, the trends dis­played reflect the growing exclusivity of Marbella and Benahavís. Far both areas, the premium placed on luxury properties over €1.5 million - especially those in the €4 million and above bracket - continues to intensify. Whether you are a buyer, investor, or seller, the data suggest that the demand far top-tier properties in Marbella and Bena­havís will remain strong, driven by both local appeal and international interest in the Costa del Sol's luxury real es­tate market.


New Division of Keller Williams Spain: KW Commercial Spain & Commercial Corporate.

After months of dedicated work, Keller Williams Spain proudly announced the launch of its new division, Keller Williams Commercial Spain, in mid-2024. This division, much like KW Luxury, which specializes in high-end real estate, will focus on the commercial property sector. Within this division, a dedicated department called Keller Williams Commercial Corporate will handle larger corporate transactions.

The newly established Commercial Division will specialize in real estate transactions across various sectors, including land, buildings, hospitality, offices, retail, and logistics. Agents who wish to operate under the Keller Williams Commercial brand will have the opportunity to earn a specialized Commercial designation. To receive this designation, agents must meet specific criteria, including experience in the commercial real estate market, at least one year of collaboration with Keller Williams, and completion of specialized training in commercial transactions.

The leadership team for Keller Williams Commercial Spain includes Alfonso Lacruz as Executive Director, Paqui Torres as Institutional Relations Director, Juan Camarero as Technical Director, and Juanjo Garcia as Business Development Manager. Together, this team is wellpositioned to lead the new division and offer clients expertise across the diverse commercial real estate landscape in Spain.

Marbella Surges, Benahavis slows: Key insights from second quarter 2024 home sales.

The Spanish Ministry for Housing has just published the home sales figures per municipality for the second quarter of 2024, revealing that the real estate market remains active. We’ve analyzed the data for Marbella and Benahavis, leading to two key observations:

1. Different trends in Marbella and Benahavis. Both municipalities showed slightly different home sale trends. In Marbella, the first half of 2024 saw a 10.2% increase in home sales compared to the same period in 2023. However, it’s important to note that while sales are up year-overyear, the market is still 16.8% behind the record levels seen in 2022. On the other hand, Benahavis experienced a sharper decline, with home sales down 19.9% compared to the first semester of 2023, and an even steeper drop of 37.5% when compared to the peak year of 2022. This divergence in performance reflects local market conditions and possibly differing demand trends between these neighboring municipalities.

2. Sales likely to exceed historical averages. Although  we’re only halfway through the year and the complete data is still forthcoming, it’s highly probable that both Marbella and Benahavis will finish 2024 with home sales above the average of the last 20 years. In Marbella, sales are also expected to exceed the post-pandemic average of the last three years. Benahavis, however, may not reach this benchmark due to the more pronounced slowdown observed in its market, as highlighted earlier. This could point to an adjustment phase, particularly in terms of pricing and buyer preferences in this area.

In conclusion, while the real estate markets in Marbella and Benahavis remain active, they are showing signs of normalization after the effect of the pandemic, especially in terms of volume. This moderation

could have a stabilizing effect on property prices, which is generally positive for long-term market health. Although no major negative indicators are anticipated, some factors - such as rising asking prices and continued international geopolitical uncertainty - may present challenges.

Conversely, the market may benefit from potential interest rate reductions and a shortage of desirable properties, which could continue to drive demand and support prices moving forward.

Property Documentation: The I.B.I. Receipt - What to Look For?

Continuing with our focus on essential property docu-ments, and following my previous article on the Nota Sim-ple, this month I will delve into the details of the I.B.I. re-ceipt.

What is the I.B.I.?

The I.B.I., short for Impuesto de Bienes Inmuebles, is an annual property tax applicable to all real estate in Spain. This local tax must be paid by property owners, regardless of their residential status, to the local council. It’s im-portant to note that the tax is associated with the property itself, not the owner. The revenue from the I.B.I. is used to fund local infrastructure and services provided by the Town Hall.

Who Manages the I.B.I.?

The management of the I.B.I. falls under the Patronato de Recaudación Provincial, which has offices in Marbella, San Pedro de Alcántara, and Estepona. For more information, you can visit their website at www.prpmalaga.es.

When is the I.B.I. Due?

The payment is typically due in early to mid-September each year.

What Information Does the I.B.I. Receipt Contain?

The I.B.I. receipt includes several key pieces of infor-mation:

- Issuing Authority and Tax Details: The receipt will specify the council issuing the tax, the type of tax (I.B.I. Urbana), and the payment deadline.

- Owner/Taxpayer Information: It lists the name, D.N.I. or N.I.E. number, and the mailing address of the owner or taxpayer (this address is not necessarily the address of the property being taxed).

- Taxable Property Address: The address of the property to which the receipt refers.

- Property Identification Numbers: Two key identifiers are used: "Matrícula" and "Referencia Catastral." It also in-cludes relevant dates such as the issue date, deadline, and tax year.

- Total Amount Due: This is calculated from the base tax, plus any applicable interest or penalties for late payment.

- Key Valuation Information: The receipt provides the ca-dastral value of the land and the cadastral value of the building. Generally, the cadastral value of the property is the sum of these two amounts. These values are crucial for calculating other taxes, such as the Plusvalía Municipal or the Transfer Tax, which I have covered in previous arti-cles.

- Cadastral Value Update and Tax Rate: It also indicates when the cadastral values were last updated by the coun-cil and the applicable tax rate (for example, 0.4%).

The Luxury Market also mantains the pace on Marbella & Benahavis

After the recent release of the 2023 closed transaction data by the Land Registrars, we have delved into the specifics of the luxu-ry real estate market. The charts in this article are based on that information, and we’ve drawn some interesting conclusions:

1. Marbella's Luxury Market Outperforms General Market: While overall sales dropped compared to 2022, Marbella’s luxury real estate market fared better than the general market in 2023. Luxury market closings decreased by 12.4% from the record year of 2022, which is still an improvement over the 18% decline in the general market. As shown in the chart, transactions over one million euros rose to about 13% of all closed deals in Marbella, doubling the numbers from 2017. This growth is mainly in high-end properties priced above 1.5 million euros, while closings for properties between 1 and 1.5 million euros declined, likely due to reduced inventory at these price levels.

2. Benahavis Luxury Market Surpasses 2022: The luxury market in Benahavis outperformed its 2022 record. Remarkably, the number of luxury real estate closings in 2023 slightly exceeded those of the previous record year.

Most growth occurred in prop-erties priced between 1.5 and 4 million euros, while sales of prop-erties over 4 million euros dropped by 45%. Overall, uxury trans-actions made up 17% of all deals in Benahavis.

3. Rising Prices in the Luxury Market: Luxury property prices continue to climb. This trend is especially notable in Benahavis, where prices are nearing those in Marbella. Over the past decade, luxury prices in Benahavis have increased by an impressive 64%, compared to a more contained 30% rise in Marbella.

In summary, the luxury real estate market on the Costa del Sol remains robust, even outpacing the already resilient general mar-ket. However, we must be mindful of the geopolitical uncertain-ties emerging in the first.

The Market mantains the pace on Marbella & Benahavis

As we have gone through the first quarter of 2024 and observed activity on the market, the data on closed transactions for the fourth quarter of 2023, and thus for the entire year, has been released. From this information, we can draw a couple of conclusions that align with recent trends:

1. 2023 proved to be a solid year for the real estate market, although it didn't surpass the historic performance of 2022. Despite experiencing a notable -18.0% decrease in Marbella and a more modest -5.1% decline in Benahavis in the number of annual closed transactions compared to 2022, it's important to note that 2023 still brought positive outcomes for both municipalities. These percentage declines may seem substantial, but they are in comparison to 2022, a year that set historic records for closed transactions in the whole area.

2. The proportion of new unit sales has remained relatively stable. Despite fluctuations, as illustrated in the chart, the average number of new unit sales as a percentage of total sales has hovered around 7.3% for Marbella and 13.3% for Benahavis over the past decade.

These figures are significantly lower than the peaks of 45% and 65% seen during the pre-2008 crisis boom. In fact, the oversupply of new constructions played a role in that crisis, with about five times more construction activity compared to now, yet only approximately 50% of newly built units were being sold. The current numbers indicate the maturity of the market, more controlled development activity, increased developer experience, and a scarcity of available land compared to the abundance seen in 2001.

In summary, the real estate market in the Costa del Sol area continues to demonstrate resilience and positive performance, buoyed by promising macroeconomic conditions and ongoing investments. However, we have to acknowledge the geopolitical uncertainties that have arisen in the first quarter of 2024, presenting a potential risk to stability.

Unveiling Real Estate Trends: Pricing shifts & Market Dynamics on Marbella & Benahavis

The Ministry of Housing / Fomento and the real estate portal Idealista have published the most recent data regarding prices from the fourth quarter of 2023, revealing subtle shifts in trends that offer interesting insights:


1. Continued Rise in Asking Prices. Despite a 23,7% decline in annual closed transactions compared to 2022, asking prices have persisted in their upward trajectory even into the fourth quarter. Notably, the quarterly increase in prices in Benahavis and Marbella averaged a modest 1,9%, which, while still relatively high from a personal standpoint, marks a decrease from the 2,9% average witnessed in the past two years. This adjustment signals not a decline, but rather a moderation in the pace of price increases, a welcomed shift in my view. It appears that some property owners may still perceive the market through the lens of the booming year of 2022. However, even amidst this positive market sentiment, overpriced properties continue to face challenges in finding buyers.


Notably, I have observed instances where homes, after languishing on the market for two to four years, were sold within three months of being priced at a more reasonable level. As we step into the new year of 2024, asking prices persist in their upward trajectory.

2. Stabilization in Closing Prices. Although not immediately evident from the trend lines on the chart, there's a noticeable flattening in the latest data points (in blue), suggesting a potential shift towards a more stable trend in upcoming quarters if the current pace continues.

 

Consequently, while asking prices maintain their ascent, signaling optimism among property owners, closing prices are displaying a growing moderation, a typical response to a significant decrease in transactions (-23% compared to the previous year).

 

 

The increasing disparity between asking and closing prices, now reaching 30%, implies that property owners with listings on the market will likely need to offer more substantial reductions to facilitate sales.

 

3. Prices of newly built units continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace, while the prices of second-hand homes are starting to decline. In Marbella, prices of newly sold units saw a modest increase of 0,1% over the last two quarters, whereas closed prices of second-hand homes decreased by 3,5%. This marks the first semester since the pandemic where prices have shown a downward trend. Similarly, in Benahavis, the situation mirrors Marbella's, with a 4,2% increase in newly sold units over the last six months, contrasted with a 0,6% reduction in second-hand home prices. It remains to be seen in the upcoming quarters whether this trend will persist or if it was merely a reflection of the fourth quarter of 2023, when economic indicators were less favorable, with rising index rates and inflation not fully under control.

4. Valuations are following a similar pattern to closed prices. Although valuation prices reported are only available for Marbella (indicated in red on the chart) and not for Benahavis, in the fourth quarter, the red dots on the Marbella chart indicate a deviation from the previous trend line, suggesting potential concerns among valuators regarding market conditions. Time will reveal whether this deviation represents an isolated deviation or a broader trend. Nevertheless, it underscores the uncertainties faced by valuators during the fourth quarter .

In summary, asking prices in Marbella and Benahavis continue to rise, leading to a widening gap with real closing prices, also growing but on a more moderated way, reported by the Land Registry. This trend suggests an excess of optimism among property owners attempting to sell their properties. While price increases are typical in a healthy market, double-digit percentage increases, as seen in recent years, may not be sustainable in the long run.

 

Embracing Optimism: Key factors for a positive 2024 Real Estate Market in Marbella & Benahavis

As we initiate this the new year, we have been receiving many inquiries about our outlook for 2024. We have been analyzing the market and are pleased to share our positive perspective based on several key factors:

1. Resilient performance in 2023 showing a positive outlook despite transaction decline. Despite a 23.7% decrease in annual closed transactions compared to 2022, 2023 has proven to be a solid year for the real estate market in Marbella. This decline, though significant, should be viewed in context, as it positions 2023 above the average for the past two decades.

 

2. Prices in Marbella and Benahavis show signs of moderation.  In our recent newsletter, we highlighted that second-hand home closing prices are exhibiting a more restrained increase, as indicated by official third-quarter data from 2023. Current information from the real estate portal Idealista from January 2024 asking prices reveals a downward trend in smaller municipalities, while prime locations maintain stability (see info attached for Benahavis).

 This moderation in prices is a positive development, potentially enticing more buyers back into the market.

 

3. Euribor decline unlocks affordability and signals market positivity. The Euribor mortgage index rate is on a downward trajectory, standing at 3.686% in January 2024 compared to the peak of 4.16% in October 2023. This not only enhances afforda-bility for buyers but also signals a favorable shift in the index, anticipating additional reductions, as predicted by different bank analysts, throughout 2024 and 2025, providing a two-year window with increased acquisition capacity.

 

4. Anticipated Interest Rate reductions can be a boost for real estate in 2024. Analysts anticipate a reduction in the European Central Bank's official interest rate in June, marking another positive signal for the market. The more moderate inflation rate of 2.8% in January 2024, compared to the double-digit figures at the end of 2022, supports this forecast. Lower interest rates will alleviate mortgage costs and positively impact the real estate market.

 

 

5. Affordability metrics are weathering challenges in the Spanish real estate landscape. Despite a 2.25% increase in the affordability rate in Spain over the past two years, it remains at 33%, still 1% below the average of the last two decades. While rising prices and interest rates have had some impact, it is not anticipated to significantly affect the market, particularly the high-end segment on the Costa del Sol.

 

6. Steady inventory maintains equilibrium in Marbella & Benahavis. The inventory remains balanced and relatively low. Although price increases may push off some buyers, the limited supply of properties will likely prevent significant price declines, contributing to a stable market.

 

In summary, our optimism for the Marbella & Benahavis real estate market in 2024 is grounded in these positive indicators. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, including conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and U.S. elections, we believe that the market, supported by the factors mentioned above, will exhibit resilience. Notably, our January activities have shown moderate engagement, defying the typical quietness associated with this time of year.

 

Understanding Price Trends in Marbella & Benahavis with insights from 2023´s third quarter.

In December 2023, the official data for the third quarter of 2023, sourced from the Associations of Land Registries and Notaries, was released, revealing a continued upward trajectory in property prices. In Charts 1 and 2, we have worked out this information with the variation in asking prices from the real estate portal Idealista to draw some compelling conclusions:

1.- Sustained Price Growth: Notably, property prices persist in their upward journey, maintaining a consistent pace with double-digit growth, approaching a 13% annual variation. This growth, as shown in the charts, can be observed in the three different prices being recorded: asking, closing and valuations pricing.
Property prices have been on a consistent upward trajectory since 2014, experiencing a more pronounced acceleration from 2022 onwards in Marbella and a sustained, continuous ascent in Benahavis.

2.- Continued Trend: Although official year-end data for 2023 is yet to be released (scheduled for March 2024), the asking prices published by the Idealista portal indicate an ongoing growth rate, remaining consistent with previous months. Despite an unmanifested slowdown in the data, the market experienced a palpable deceleration in the last quarter of 2023.

 3.- Persistent Gap in Asking and Closed Prices:
The disparity between asking and closed prices remains significant. In Marbella, this gap reached historical highs in 2022, approaching 20%, and persists, indicating that the current average overpricing of properties in the market remains at that level. In Benahavis, a similar pattern is observed, with the gap closely mirroring Marbella's, reaching a peak near 24% in 2022 and currently standing at a more moderate but still notable 17%.

 

 4.- Preference for New Builds: The contrast between the closing prices of new units and second-hand homes underscores a distinct preference for newly constructed properties. Both new build and second-hand unit prices have experienced an upward trajectory in Marbella and Benahavis, as illustrated in Charts 3 and 4 (back page). However, the trends diverge between the two locations. In Marbella, a significant surge in new build prices has been observed since mid-2022, while closing prices for second-hand homes present a more stabilized situation with a tendency toward stability. At the start of 2022, the difference stood at a mere 500 €/m2, approximately 15%. Currently, this gap has expanded to 2,500 €/m2, marking a notable 40% increase. Conversely, in Benahavis, purchasers of new builds are paying a remarkable 50% more per square meter than those acquiring second-hand properties. This imbalance can be attributed to the general preference among customers for new products, despite the premium associated with being new. Additionally, the limited availability of new developments in Benahavis further contributes to this market asymmetry.

 

 

Considering the sustained increases in prices, a pertinent question arises: Can this trend be sustained? Personally, I believe the market cannot support continuous double-digit growth over time. Examining the American real estate market, which typically precedes ours by about a year, it experienced a profound crisis in 2023, with some locations witnessing 17% price drops and an average of 11%, along with a 40% decline in closed sales of second-hand homes. This collapse was primarily attributed to affordability rates, with high mortgage rates and escalating prices pushing many buyers out of the market, resulting in reduced closings and a subsequent drop in prices.

Could we witness a similar situation in the markets of Marbella and Benahavis? In this instance, I am inclined to believe otherwise. Luxury markets, such as the one we have here, are less susceptible to increases in mortgage interest rates, and the inventory remains low. Examining the luxury real estate market in the US reveals a more normalized market with a similar number of homes sold and a 3% increase in prices. Therefore, our focus should be on maintaining a more normalized market in terms of homes sold and price increases, as failure to do so may continue to deter potential buyers.

In summary, while acknowledging the current normalized market, I am of the opinion that the ongoing increase in prices may not be sustainable for much longer, as it runs the risk of destabilizing the market.

Your new home awaits.